The “magic bullet” theory, officially dubbed the single bullet theory, comes from the Warren Commission’s 1964 report. It claims one bullet—Commission Exhibit 399 (CE 399)—fired by Lee Harvey Oswald from the Texas School Book Depository, struck President Kennedy in the back, exited his throat, then hit Governor John Connally, causing multiple wounds before lodging in his thigh. This pristine bullet, found on a stretcher at Parkland Hospital, is central to the lone-gunman narrative. But lately, it’s been under a microscope again, with new tech, reanalyzed evidence, and persistent skepticism driving the discussion.

Recent scrutiny kicked up with advancements in forensic tech. Around the early 2000s, studies like the 2004 National Academy of Sciences review used 3D modeling to test the bullet’s path. They found it plausible—barely—if Kennedy and Connally were aligned just so, with the bullet tumbling after exiting JFK. But critics, like forensic pathologist Dr. Cyril Wecht, who’s been vocal into the 2020s, argue the physics still don’t add up. A single bullet causing seven wounds (entry/exit in JFK, four in Connally) and emerging near-intact defies what’s typical in high-velocity rifle shots, they say. Wecht’s 2021 interviews doubled down, pointing to FBI tests showing more bullet deformation than CE 399’s slight flattening.

The 2017 JFK file releases added fuel. Documents revealed the FBI’s initial doubts about the bullet’s condition—agents noted it looked “too good” to have done all that damage. Ballistics experts, like those cited in a 2022 X thread by researcher Mark Groubert, revisited lead fragment analysis. Neutron activation tests from the 1960s showed CE 399’s fragments matched those in Connally’s wrist, but modern critiques question the sample size and chain of custody. A 2023 podcast, “The Assassination Files,” highlighted how the bullet’s pristine state clashes with newer wound ballistics data—think AR-15 studies showing fragmentation at similar velocities (around 3,200 ft/s).

Public and expert skepticism has flared online too. X posts from 2024-2025 often cite the Zapruder film, frame 313 especially, arguing the timing and JFK’s backward jolt don’t sync with a single rear shot hitting both men. Digital recreations—like a 2020 YouTube analysis by “JFK X-Ray”—tweak the seating angles and still find the trajectory awkward, reviving “second shooter” chatter. Meanwhile, Connally’s own words (he insisted he was hit separately) get echoed in these discussions, challenging the Warren timeline.

Defenders aren’t quiet either. A 2023 Forensic Science International paper re-ran simulations, claiming CE 399’s condition fits a “yaw and tumble” scenario, losing energy mid-flight. They lean on the 2007 Discovery Channel test, where a Carcano bullet mimicked the feat. But detractors call these cherry-picked—ideal conditions, not real-world chaos.